Comprehensive evaluation and dynamic evolution analysis of urban vulnerability of old industrial bases in Heilongjiang Province, China

Urban vulnerability has always been the main content of urban planning research, and it is an important basis to judge whether urban development is healthy and sustainable.As the largest old industrial base in China, Northeast China has embarked on a development path dominated by heavy industry under the planned economy system. Its industrial structure is not sustainable, and it relies on natural resources for a long time. The ecological environment has been destroyed.The study on urban vulnerability of the old industrial bases in Northeast China is of great significance for the revitalization of the old industrial bases and the promotion of high-quality urban development in China.Taking 13 prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province in northeast China as the research objects, this paper constructs an evaluation index system from four dimensions of ecological environment, resources, society and economy, and analyzes the spatial pattern and dynamic evolution of urban vulnerability from 2010 to 2019 by using entropy method, comprehensive index method and grey correlation degree.The results show that :(1) Spatially, the urban vulnerability pattern of Heilongjiang Province in 2015 showed clustering of high-vulnerability areas, and then the overall urban vulnerability decreased and tended to be evenly distributed.(2) In terms of time, the urban vulnerability of Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2013, and gradually decreased from 2013 to 2019. The resource vulnerability, ecological vulnerability and social vulnerability all decreased steadily, while the economic vulnerability first increased and then decreased.(3) The correlation between urban comprehensive vulnerability and ecological vulnerability in Heilongjiang Province was the highest in 2010, and the correlation between urban vulnerability and economic vulnerability was the highest in 2013-2015, and then the correlation shifted to social vulnerability.In the future, in the process of deepening the revitalization of the old industrial base, Heilongjiang Province should strengthen the construction of economic transformation, optimize the industrial structure, strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, and improve the utilization rate of resources.