Assessment of Road Transport Atmospheric Emission of GHGs & Criteria Pollutants in Qatar: BAU Versus Paris Agreement NDC Policy Scenarios

Abstract Assessment of Road Transport Atmospheric Emission of GHGs & Criteria Pollutants in Qatar: BAU Versus Paris Agreement NDC Policy Scenarios Azhari F. M. Ahmed*; Lolwa Al Kuwari; and Abdulhadi Al Marri Climate Change Department, Ministry of Municipality & Environment, Doha, Qatar (30 August 2021, Doha, Qatar) The environmental impact of energy use on global climate change & sustainable development, presents a serious challenge to modern societies. This is particularly true for road transport in fast developing countries such as Qatar. Combustion of gasoline and diesel by road transport emits into the atmosphere direct greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air quality criteria pollutants (AQCPs). Scientists are now certain that GHGs, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are responsible for the observed global temperature increase which is projected to rise by approximately 1.7-3.9 ͦC by 2100. AQCPs, known collectively as criteria air pollutants include carbon monoxide (CO), Non-methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs), Sulphur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx). These pollutants cause or contribute to local or regional air pollution with far reaching impacts on sustainable development, notably human health adverse effects (EU & WHO, 2014). There is now clear evidence of a causal relationship between exposure to traffic-related air pollution and health impacts such as exacerbation of asthma, non-asthma respiratory symptoms, impaired lung function and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Overall, the strongest evidence for the most problematic pollutants in terms of human health is for particulate matter, especially PM2.5 and O3. NO2 is also a key concern because of both its direct health effects and its role as a precursor to ozone formation (Hitchcock et. Al 2014). Moreover, several AQCPs are recognized as short-lived climate forcing pollutants. The results discussed in this paper are based on an updated version of the QF NPRP-6-1035-5-126 Report’s original data sets contributed by the lead author in 2015. The current paper covers the period 2016-2020 & projections to 2030. GHGs & AQCPs-fuel based emission factors (EFs) for gasoline and diesel fueled vehicles were compiled from published reports by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) & US Environmental Protection Agency. Country specific tier-2 EFs were adapted using fuel-specific carbon content & heat content. Analysis of the baseline data covered vehicles fleet composition, traffic counts and the spatial & temporal variations of traffic density in Doha. IPCC based business as usual and policy scenarios in line with Qatar’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement were employed to assess the emission reduction target. The paper discusses the chronology of road transport GHGs & AQCPs emissions in Qatar and modeled projections based on BAU & policy scenarios for the 2020-2030 timeframe. Emission intensities relative to socio-economic parameters were also examined. *This paper is based on a contribution made by the lead author to the QF Research Project # QF NPRP-6-1035-5-126, 4 October 2015; corresponding author e-mail address: afahmed@mme.gov.qa